Weekly Wrap-up: 6 November

Every week I sift through the news, research and signals shaping the world around us to uncover what matters to your life, work and future – so you can make better decisions today, get ahead of the opportunities coming tomorrow and build a future on your terms.

This week, I'm looking at the changing economics of Australian households and businesses, the future of global trade, the relationship between climate and human security, and the decisions governments are making about the world we are moving into.

Editors Pick: How to get ahead over the next five years – it isn’t planning, it’s strategising. 

We're still trying to grow, optimise and scale our lives using the same linear planning methods we've been taught for decades. Set the goal. Build the roadmap. Follow the steps. Measure the progress. There's one really big problem with that approach and I bet you’re feeling it but haven’t quite put your finger on it. The world doesn't follow our plans.

So much change is reshaping the environment around us so why do we keep recycling the same methods to plan, often with very limited success, while wondering why it's getting harder to thrive.

Professor Roger Martin has made this distinction in his work on strategy: a plan describes a path towards an intended outcome, while strategy has to account for the external forces, choices and uncertainties that determine whether that path will actually work.

My opinion is that this distinction will become an increasingly important life skill and separate those who find opportunities and adapt from those who spend their time trying to hold on to a plan that no longer fits.

The challenge is that most of us have never been taught how to develop a personal strategy. We tend to manage our lives in separate silos: career over here, finances over there, health somewhere else, family responsibilities in another corner. Yet they all draw on the same finite resources and influence one another.

A strategy brings those pieces together. It helps you decide what matters, where to invest your time and resources, what opportunities to pursue and what you might need to change as the world around you changes. I'm preparing an upcoming podcast episode on this topic: How do we thrive and capture opportunity over the next 5 years?

Here’s the signals that caught my attention this week.

1. What does the continued climb of Australia’s household cost of living mean? 

The Australian Bureau of Statistics released its September 2026 Selected Living Cost Indexes on 4 November, revealing that household living costs increased across every household category during the quarter.

Employee households recorded the largest quarterly increase, at 1.9%, taking their annual increase to 5.1%. Pensioner and beneficiary households experienced an annual increase of 4.6%, while self-funded retirees recorded 3.8%.

The biggest contributors included transport, housing and insurance and financial services. For employee households, mortgage interest charges increased 5.7% during the quarter, following an 8.2% increase in the previous quarter. Fuel prices, rents, water charges and property rates also contributed to rising household expenses.

The figures highlight growing pressure across some of the most essential areas of household expenditure, including housing, mortgage interest, fuel, water charges and insurance. These are costs households have limited ability to avoid or reduce.

What it could mean for you?

For individuals and households, the increasing cost of essential expenses could mean having less disposable income available for everything else. Social activities, hobbies, holidays, education and personal development are often the first things people cut when household budgets become stretched. Over time, this can affect social connection, mental health and people's ability to invest in their own development and future opportunities.

For employers and leaders, the implications extend into the workplace. Employees managing increasing household expenses may experience greater financial stress, which can compound existing pressures associated with workloads, organisational change and job insecurity. Psychological safety will become increasingly important over the next 12 months. Employers need to consider how they manage expectations, communicate change and support employee wellbeing, particularly when productivity and business performance are under pressure. An organisation's ability to retain and develop its people will increasingly depend on how well it balances performance expectations with the conditions employees need to do their jobs sustainably.

For small businesses, rising costs across essential services, insurance, utilities and transport will continue to put pressure on operating margins. There is also a second consideration: when households spend more on keeping a roof over their heads and paying their essential bills, they have less money available for discretionary purchases. Businesses relying on consumer spending may need to reconsider pricing, product offerings and how they attract customers who are becoming more selective about where their money goes.

Source: Selected Living Cost Indexes | Australia | September 2026 period

2. AI adoption could create a growing divide among Australian businesses

The Tech Council of Australia released its AI × SME: From Curiosity to Capability research on 22 October, examining how small and medium-sized businesses are adopting artificial intelligence and the productivity opportunities available to them.

SMEs account for approximately 65% of Australian employment and more than $1 trillion in GDP. Yet the research identifies a significant adoption gap, with current estimates suggesting only around one-quarter of SMEs have adopted AI in some form.

The research explores the barriers preventing wider adoption and the productivity and workforce benefits available to businesses that move beyond experimentation and integrate AI into their operations.

What it could mean for you?

The organisations and individuals best placed to navigate this shift may be those who can recognise the opportunities, test them carefully and retain the flexibility to change direction as the technology develops.

For individuals and households, AI will continue to create opportunities to work differently, access information and build new capabilities. The pace and direction of change remain uncertain, though. It's worth experimenting with the tools, understanding their limitations and being thoughtful about which tasks and decisions as well as information you hand over to them. Building your own judgement and ability to adapt will remain valuable.

Employers and leaders are likely to continue to experience pressure to adopt AI and demonstrate productivity gains, but the technology is developing quickly and the long-term benefits, costs and risks are still unfolding. Leaders need room to experiment, evaluate what is genuinely useful and understand the implications for their workforce before making large-scale commitments. A considered approach to adoption may prove more valuable than rushing to keep up with the latest trend.

For businesses, AI could offer real opportunities to improve efficiency, develop products and services, and compete in new ways. The commercial case will vary between businesses, industries and applications. Smaller businesses in particular should be clear about the problem they are trying to solve, the return they expect and the data or systems they are exposing before investing heavily.

Source: Tech Council of Australia | Accelerating AI Impact for SMEs

3. Global trade could look very different by 2035. The gap is $13 trillion.

The International Chamber of Commerce's Global Trade Intelligence Report 2026 examines how global trade has adapted to six years of disruption, from the pandemic and geopolitical conflict to tariffs, export controls and changing supply chains.

Global trade reached a record US$35 trillion in 2025, with growth continuing into 2026. The report highlights how trade is being reshaped rather than simply retreating. New trading corridors are emerging, developing economies are playing a bigger role, and services and technology are becoming increasingly important drivers of growth.

What I found particularly interesting is the report's modelling of four plausible futures for global trade through to 2035. Developed with Boston Consulting Group, these scenarios range from renewed rules-based trade and stronger regional trading blocs to a more fragmented system and countries prioritising self-sufficiency.

The difference between the strongest and weakest scenarios is approximately US$13 trillion in projected global goods trade by 2035. That's a significant divergence in the size of the global trading environment, depending on how trade policy and economic integration evolve.

The report currently identifies a fragmented but interconnected trading system, which it calls the Multi-Nodal Patchwork, as the most likely trajectory. In this scenario, global goods trade reaches US$39.2 trillion by 2035. Trade continues to grow, but access to markets increasingly depends on individual agreements, political relationships and the strategic importance of particular industries.

What it could mean for you

A US$13 trillion difference between possible futures is a pretty compelling reason to think beyond the next budget cycle. Those that understand the range of outcomes ahead, and prepare for more than one of them, give themselves a much better chance of navigating change and capturing opportunity.

For households, think about the bigger purchases and everyday products you rely on. Cars, appliances, electronics and even replacement parts could become more expensive or harder to source as trade relationships change. When buying, consider how long something will last, whether it can be repaired and whether you have alternative brands or suppliers. A little more thought upfront could save you money and frustration later.

For employers and leaders, it's time to look at how exposed your organisation is to changes in global trade. Do you rely on one supplier, one country or one transport route for something critical? Identify those pressure points, understand what alternatives are available and test whether your business could keep operating if costs rise or supply is interrupted.

For businesses, changing trade relationships could create new markets as well as new barriers. Review where you source products, which markets you depend on and how exposed your pricing is to tariffs, freight and rising input costs. Keep an eye on emerging trade corridors and consider where you might diversify before you need to.

The takeaway? Build options into your strategy. The more plausible futures you prepare for, the more room you have to adapt when the trading environment changes.

Source: International Chamber of Commerce | Global Trade Intelligence Report 2026

4. Australians still support democracy, but what happens when confidence in political leadership falls

The 2026 McKinnon Index, produced by the McKinnon Institute using research conducted by Roy Morgan in July, provides an updated picture of how Australians experience democracy and their confidence in the institutions responsible for governing the country.

The research surveyed more than 4,200 Australians across 96 measures of democratic health.

The findings reveal an interesting divide. While 76.4% of Australians believe democracy is preferable to any other system of government, satisfaction with how democracy works has fallen to 50.7%. Trust in federal politicians has dropped to 30.5%, while trust in the Federal Government sits at 33.1%.

The Index also highlights growing differences between generations and education groups. Only 54.3% of Australians aged 18–24 believe democracy is preferable to other forms of government, compared with 91.9% of those aged over 65.

There is also a significant decline in young men's confidence that Australians can freely express political opinions, falling from 72.6% in 2025 to 49.8% in 2026.

What it could mean for you

When people lose confidence in political leadership, the consequences can reach well beyond election day. Disillusionment can turn into disengagement, growing hostility towards institutions and a willingness to believe explanations that reinforce existing grievances. Conspiracy theories and misinformation can find, and arguably have found, fertile ground when people feel ignored, particularly when political debate becomes about loyalty to a leader or movement rather than understanding the decisions being made. The rising threats against Australian parliamentarians, including the disturbing events involving Helen Haines, show why this matters. We need to be alert to the way political division can spill into our communities and affect people's willingness to participate in public life.

For younger Australians, the longer-term question is whether they can see a meaningful place for themselves in the democratic process. If they don't understand how decisions are made, don't believe their voices matter or feel that political debate is hostile and inaccessible, we risk losing a generation of people who might otherwise become community advocates, public representatives and future political leaders. Understanding how government works, how legislation is made, how to engage with elected representatives and how to distinguish reliable information from political rhetoric are increasingly important civic skills. These are things worth actively developing, and teaching, now.

For businesses, declining confidence in government can make the policy environment harder to navigate. Businesses need to understand how political decisions affect regulation, investment, infrastructure, workforce policy and the markets in which they operate. If public debate becomes more polarised, policy decisions may become increasingly contested and subject to political pressure. Businesses should pay attention to the issues driving community dissatisfaction, understand where their own operations are exposed to policy changes and maintain the ability to adapt as government priorities shift.

Source: The McKinnon Index 2026 | Tracking Australia's Democratic Health

5. Climate change is becoming a questions of everyday health and living standards

The World Health Organization's November report, Global Benefits and Costs of Prioritized Actions on Climate Change and Health, makes a compelling economic and public health case for investing in climate adaptation and mitigation.

It assesses six interventions: heat-health warning systems, climate-resilient drinking water, sanitation and hand hygiene, cleaner household energy, and policies that more accurately price fossil fuels

The modelling estimates that scaling up these six actions globally could save 1.56 million lives each year. The two mitigation interventions could also avoid 16.67 billion tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions. For the five interventions where both costs and benefits could be calculated, WHO estimates a return of US$24 in benefits for every dollar invested.

The report's underlying message is that the systems supporting everyday health and living standards will need to adapt as climate-related hazards increase. Access to safe drinking water, reliable sanitation, cleaner household energy and protection from extreme heat will become increasingly important. The report makes a strong case for investing in those capabilities now, rather than waiting until the costs of inaction become harder to manage.

What it could mean for you

For households, it's worth thinking about what you want your home and household to be capable of doing five years from now. Will you be able to keep your home cool during prolonged heat? Do you have shade, insulation or cooling options that don't rely entirely on expensive electricity? What would happen to your household if water supply was interrupted? Could you store water, access an alternative supply or collect rainwater where practical? These are the kinds of decisions worth building into home improvements and longer-term budgets now. The ability to stay cool, access safe water and maintain basic household needs could become an increasingly important part of household resilience.

For employers and leaders, heat will have direct implications for working conditions, particularly for people working outdoors, in warehouses, on construction sites or in buildings that are difficult to cool. Start thinking about what safe work will look like during longer or more intense heat events. That includes access to cool spaces, drinking water, adjusted working hours, heat-response procedures and flexibility when conditions become unsafe. These arrangements need to be built into workforce planning and operational budgets before they become urgent.

For businesses, water, energy and heat resilience deserve a place in your forward planning. Consider whether your premises can operate safely during extreme heat, whether your business relies on uninterrupted water or energy supplies, and what happens if either becomes unavailable. Investing in cooling, water efficiency, alternative energy options and continuity arrangements may carry an upfront cost, but could protect your ability to keep operating as conditions change.

The point is to start making decisions now about the conditions you want to be able to live and work in five years from now. Homes, workplaces and businesses that build these capabilities early will have more options as climate pressures increase.

Source: WHO | Global benefits and costs of prioritised actions on climate change and health

7. The heat is changing the conditions in which we live and work

The 2026 Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change, published on 28 October, tracks 54 indicators showing how climate change is affecting human health, livelihoods and economies.

The findings are stark. In 2025, people experienced an average of 13.5 heatwave days globally, with 83% of those days unlikely to have occurred without human-caused climate change. Heat exposure contributed to an estimated 573 billion potential working hours lost worldwide, 35% above the 2006–15 average. The potential income lost through reduced labour capacity reached US$1.07 trillion.

Extreme weather-related losses also reached an estimated US$156 billion in 2025. Meanwhile, household air conditioning use continues to rise, increasing from 32.3% in 2016 to 42% in 2024. The report estimates that air conditioning may have prevented more than 360,000 heat-related deaths annually in 2022–23, while also highlighting the additional pressure that cooling places on electricity demand and energy systems.

The report makes clear that climate change is already affecting the conditions in which people live and work, with significant consequences for health, productivity and household and business costs. It also highlights the growing gap between the risks and the pace of investment in adaptation.

What it could mean for you

For households, the conditions you live in will matter increasingly to your health, comfort and household budget. Think about whether your home will be able to stay cool through longer periods of extreme heat, whether you can afford to run cooling when you need it, and whether insulation, shading, ventilation or solar and battery options could make that easier. Consider how heat might affect your ability to sleep, exercise outdoors or care for older family members. Food prices and availability may also be affected by heat, drought and extreme weather. When planning renovations, household upgrades or bigger purchases, these are worth factoring in now. The aim is to have a home that can keep you safe and comfortable as conditions change.

For people who work outdoors, in warehouses, kitchens, factories or other hot environments, heat will increasingly affect when and how work can safely be done. That has implications for working hours, breaks, protective equipment and access to cool spaces. If you're choosing a career, managing a team or negotiating working arrangements, consider how exposed that work is to rising temperatures. Employers and leaders need to start building heat plans into rosters, facilities and operating budgets, rather than relying on last-minute adjustments when extreme heat arrives.

For businesses, the effects will reach well beyond employees working in the heat. Higher temperatures can affect operating hours, equipment, energy consumption, stock, transport and customer demand. Businesses dependent on agriculture, food production, construction, logistics and outdoor services may face particular pressure. Look at where heat or extreme weather could interrupt your operations, what that would cost, and whether your premises, workforce arrangements and supply chains can cope. Building those considerations into investment and continuity planning now could make a significant difference to your ability to operate over the next five years.

The bigger point is that climate change will increasingly shape the practical conditions in which we live and work. The decisions we make about our homes, jobs, infrastructure and businesses today will influence how much choice and flexibility we have later.

Source: The Lancet Countdown | The 2026 Global Report

8. What does it mean when the world is spending more on military security and less on human security?

A new report from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), released on 27 October, highlights a growing imbalance in global priorities. Global military spending reached a record US$2.9 trillion in 2025, equivalent to 2.5% of global GDP. Meanwhile, official development assistance has been falling since 2024, with major cuts affecting areas such as health and economic infrastructure.

SIPRI warns that the gap between development and humanitarian funding and the needs of vulnerable countries is widening. Its analysis estimates that official development assistance requirements could reach US$326 billion by 2028, leaving a potential funding shortfall of US$179 billion. The report argues that this gap could be closed with only a fraction of the resources being committed to additional military spending.

The concern is what happens when governments invest heavily in military capability while reducing support for the systems that help societies withstand shocks. Health services, infrastructure, food security, economic stability and disaster response all contribute to security. Weakening those foundations can leave countries more vulnerable to instability, displacement and conflict, creating further pressures that can cross borders.

What it could mean for you

For individuals and households, global security is about more than military capability. Development funding supports health systems, education, infrastructure and economic stability in countries that are important to Australia's regional relationships and supply chains. When those systems come under pressure, the consequences can travel further than the countries directly affected. Disruption, displacement, instability and competition for essential resources can all have wider economic and social effects. It is worth paying attention to how international aid, development and security priorities are changing, particularly across the Indo-Pacific.

For employers and leaders, this raises questions about what resilience actually means. Businesses and organisations may be operating in a world where geopolitical risks are increasing while the systems that help communities and economies absorb shocks are under pressure. Consider the countries, suppliers, markets and communities your organisation relies on. Understanding their economic and social conditions can help identify risks that may not show up in a conventional security assessment.

For businesses, the implications could emerge through supply chains, market access, commodity prices, infrastructure reliability and regional instability. Companies with exposure to developing economies or international supply networks should consider how reduced investment in health, infrastructure and economic development could affect the places they operate in or source from. Over the next five years, understanding the relationship between geopolitical security and human security will be increasingly important to business strategy.

The bigger question is whether governments can strengthen military capability while maintaining the social and economic foundations that make societies resilient in the first place. Security spending may address immediate threats, but long-term stability also depends on whether people and communities have the resources and institutions they need to withstand change.

Source: SIPRI | Rising Military Spending in the Context of Falling Development Assistance