Weekly Wrap-up: 29 October

Every week I sift through the news, research and signals shaping the world around us — looking for the things that might actually matter to your life, work and future.

This week I'm looking at the measure we use to understand economic health, the changing relationships between people and technology, and what new research tells us about the future Australians expect to inherit. 

Three very obvious economic measurements no longer fit for purpose

Every other day there is a headline about productivity, GDP or inflation and while I’m not economist (in fact it’s one area I loathe to delve into), what I understand, as a strategist, from the repeated trends and commentary, is that these measurements are no longer fit for today or where we need to head in the future. 

These are my questions. What does it mean when GDP grows, but people feel financially worse off or the climate is declining as a result of our obsession with growing productivity? What does it mean when inflation continues to climb, but the cost of housing and everyday essentials remains difficult to manage and the levers to manage rising inflation aren't working? 

Every week I’m using this section as a bit of an editors pick, where I’m signalling my intent to write a bigger piece of analysis in Substack the following week exploring change. On this topic it’ll be about whether these economic measures are still fit for purpose in a world undergoing significant reorganisation — and what a different approach to measuring economic progress might look like.

One idea I've been exploring is Tenzin Seldon’s Gross Domestic Regeneration (GDR) which is a different way of thinking about economic activity through the lens of what we restore and strengthen, rather than simply what we produce and consume. It's an emerging proposition, not an established replacement for GDP, but it raises an important question: are we measuring the things that actually matter for our future?

Last week's editors pick was the US Midterms. I’ve spent the week returning to my strategic foresight roots and have been mapping four alternative futures for the US midterms and explored what each could mean for Australia and Australians. If you want to understand how possible political outcomes could affect our economy, security and relationship with the US, I'll have it published later today on my Substack - @jacintadebriefs. You can have a read of my previous piece: The Milliennial Exodus: Are we creating a future leadership gap, while you're waiting. 

Here’s the signals that caught my attention this week.

1. Knowledge is everywhere. Turning it into capability is the hard part.

Preply’s 2026 Progress Report examined how technology is changing the way people learn. Drawing on a global survey of more than 5,000 working professionals, it found a gap between learning activity and real-world application.

The report found that 76% of respondents were spending more time learning than they had two years earlier. Yet 63% said they felt busy learning without truly improving, while 49% said they had maintained a learning routine for months and still struggled to apply what they learned in real life.

AI is now part of how many professionals learn. The report found that 88% of respondents used AI as part of their learning, and 75% trusted learning that combines AI with human expertise for long-term progress.

What could this mean for you?

Over the next few years, access to knowledge will continue to expand through AI tools, online courses and digital learning platforms. The ability to turn that knowledge into practical capability will become increasingly important for career development and employability.

For individuals, this means being deliberate about the skills you develop and finding opportunities to put them into practice. Look at the work you want to do in three to five years. Identify the capabilities it may require, the gaps you need to close and the experience you can start building now.

For employers and leaders, the challenge is designing professional development that translates into better performance, stronger judgement and greater adaptability. Training completion rates tell only part of the story. Leaders need to understand whether employees can apply new skills, solve unfamiliar problems and respond to changing conditions.

Businesses that build learning into everyday work will be better placed to adapt as roles evolve. The future of professional development will increasingly involve a combination of technology, human guidance, practical experience and feedback.

Source: Preply's Progress Report 2026: Tracking Real Learning Outcomes in the Age of AI

2. The digital world is making human connection more valuable 

New research from Quad and The Harris Poll explores a growing consumer interest in physical experiences and tangible products in an increasingly digital world.

The 2026 Return of Touch research found that 80% of Americans were drawn to real-world experiences that do not revolve around screens. Some 75% said a simpler relationship with technology felt like a lifestyle upgrade, while 84% said owning physical items was more satisfying than owning digital ones.

The research also points to the value consumers place on human craft, in-person retail experiences and products they can see and touch before buying.

These findings reflect US consumer research, so the strength of the trend in Australia will need to be assessed in our own market.

What it could mean for you?

I’ve published on my socials previously about the 8 signs we’re at the beginning of the Great Tech Rebalance. Here we’re seeing more signals that people are starting to reclaim agency over their relationship with technology. They’re reconsidering how much they want to subscribe to, what they want to own and how much of their lives they want mediated through screens.

For households, this could mean a renewed interest in second-hand DVDs, CDs and vinyl, along with the devices needed to play them. Growing demand could push up prices for sought-after items and create a market for refurbished players. Owning films, music and games could also give parents more control over what children access, reduce reliance on streaming subscriptions and ease the pressure to keep upgrading technology.

Subscription services may eventually feel the impact and platforms could respond with more flexible pricing and new ways to access content.

For businesses, the opportunity is to meet customers where these preferences are heading. Retailers could explore second-hand media and refurbished technology, while entertainment venues and community spaces could build experiences around shared interests. Education and professional development providers could also find greater demand for in-person workshops, practical learning and face-to-face connection.

As people seek more control over their time, money and technology, businesses that offer greater choice, ownership and meaningful human experiences may be well placed to respond.

Source: The Return of Touch and the Shift in Marketing - The Harris Poll & 75% of Americans think a simpler relationship with technology is a lifestyle upgrade

3. Economic volatility is becoming a fact of life

The International Monetary Fund’s October 2026 World Economic Outlook, titled Resilience Under Strain, Urgent Choices, projects global economic growth of 3.1% in 2026, followed by 3.4% in 2027.

The IMF expects global headline inflation to rise to 4.7% in 2026 before easing to 4.1% in 2027. Its analysis highlights risks associated with escalating conflicts, trade tensions, fiscal vulnerabilities and a possible reassessment of expectations surrounding AI.

The outlook also points to uneven conditions across economies. Energy-importing countries outside the technology value chain face particularly difficult prospects.

What it could mean for you

Economic volatility is likely to continue. Knowing how to read the signals, understand how they could affect your circumstances and think through different scenarios will be essential to making informed decisions.

For households, plan for continued pressure on everyday essentials, including groceries, fuel, electricity and water. Inflation figures can mask the growing gap between wealth at the top and the financial squeeze on middle-income households. As supply chains shift and resources become harder to access, things we’ve taken for granted — from food and fuel to technology — could become more expensive or less available. Pay attention to what your household relies on and where you can build flexibility now.

For small and medium-sized businesses, rising prices and supply disruptions could put pressure on cash flow and daily operations. Businesses need to build financial buffers, identify alternative suppliers and create backup options before they’re needed. Those who anticipate change early will be better placed to manage disruption and spot new opportunities.

The priority is to build options now, so you have room to adapt when conditions change.

Source: World Economic Outlook, October 2026: Resilience Under Strain, Urgent Choices

4. Global economic relationships are shifting, and resilience remains weak

The World Economic Forum’s September 2026 Chief Economists’ Outlook suggests that expectations for global economic growth have improved since May. However, economists remain concerned about the global economy’s capacity to withstand future shocks, as geopolitical tensions, changing trade relationships, rising costs and uncertainty around AI investment reshape the outlook.

What the report tells us:

·        Resilience remains weak. While 56% of surveyed economists expect the global outlook to remain stable or improve over the next year, only 25% expect the global economy to become more resilient.

·        Governments have less room to respond. Fiscal support helped sustain economic resilience in recent years, but only 28% expect it to play the same role over the next year. Governments may have less capacity to cushion the impact of future economic shocks.

·        Global economic relationships are changing. 77% expect geoeconomic fragmentation to increase, as trade, investment and supply chains are reshaped by geopolitical tensions and national interests.

·        AI investment could deliver uneven benefits. 69% expect AI to generate meaningful productivity gains, yet 79% anticipate significant local opposition to data-centre expansion. Most also expect data centres to put upward pressure on electricity and water prices.

·        Growth prospects vary significantly by region. India and Southeast Asia are viewed more favourably than Europe and China, highlighting how the geography of future growth may continue to shift.

What could this mean for you?

Governments may have less financial capacity to cushion the next economic shock. Households should consider how they would manage job losses, rising costs or unexpected expenses if government assistance were limited or delayed. Businesses should plan for a future where COVID-style stimulus or substantial relief funding may not be available, building cash reserves and backup options before disruption hits.

AI investment could drive productivity and economic growth while creating new pressures for households and communities. Data centres require significant electricity and water, potentially pushing up local costs while the financial benefits flow elsewhere. Businesses need to weigh the productivity gains from AI against implementation costs and changing infrastructure demands, while communities should pay attention to who benefits from new investment and who bears the costs.

For businesses looking to expand, shifting regional growth prospects could create opportunities beyond familiar markets. India and Southeast Asia are viewed more favourably than Europe and China, making them worth investigating for export growth, new customers and supply-chain partnerships. Understanding where growth is moving — and positioning early — could become a competitive advantage.

Source: Chief Economists’ Outlook: September 2026 | World Economic Forum

5. Emerging-market bonds are challenging old assumptions

Emerging-market debt is gaining attention as some wealthier economies face pressure from rising government borrowing, persistent inflation concerns and higher bond yields.

VanEck’s September 2026 analysis found that emerging-market bonds outperformed developed-market bonds and US Treasuries over the year to 15 September, using the specific market measures in its comparison.

ODI’s research highlights improvements in some emerging economies, including stronger economic policies and greater financial buffers to help manage global uncertainty. However, these improvements are not consistent across all countries.

The risks also differ depending on the country and type of debt. Exchange-rate movements, the cost of borrowing and a government’s capacity to repay what it owes all influence how these investments perform.

What could this mean for you?

As emerging economies strengthen their financial position, investment and economic opportunity could increasingly shift towards different countries and industries. For Australians, that could affect the performance of superannuation investments, the industries creating secure jobs and the skills that employers value. Over the longer term, understanding where global investment is flowing could help you assess your superannuation’s exposure to different markets, consider career opportunities in growing industries and recognise when Australia's changing trade relationships may create new employment prospects.

For businesses, the opportunity is to anticipate where these changing economic relationships could open new markets, investment opportunities and commercial partnerships. If emerging economies continue to strengthen while developed countries face mounting debt and interest costs, businesses may need to rethink where they source, invest and grow. Leaders should also consider how tighter government budgets could affect infrastructure investment, industry support and the broader business environment.

Source: Emerging market debt in a 5% Treasury world & Emerging markets at the epicentre: resilience, reform and the new geometry of global risk | ODI: Think change

6. Australia’s wellbeing warning: the future feels less certain

The 2026 Australian Unity Wellbeing Index, produced with researchers from Deakin University, found that Australians’ satisfaction with the nation’s overall wellbeing had fallen compared with 2025.

The National Wellbeing Index dropped 3.2 points to 54.8 out of 100 in the April–May survey. The index considers Australians’ views across the economy, natural environment, social conditions, government, business and national security.

Personal wellbeing averaged 67.2 out of 100 in April–May and declined by a further 1.1 points by September. Satisfaction with future security, personal safety and standard of living also weakened.

The research drew on more than 10,000 Australians in April and May, with almost 1,500 of the same participants surveyed again in September.

What could this mean for you?

Confidence in the future influences how people make decisions about work, family, housing, education and long-term plans. When people feel less certain about what lies ahead, they may find it harder to commit to major decisions or see a clear path towards the future they want.

For individuals, these findings reinforce the value of building a personal five-year strategy that reflects the world we live in now and the scale and pace of change. Planning for different scenarios, building financial and practical options, developing relevant skills and strengthening relationships and support networks in preparation for the change that causes uncertainty can help you navigate it while maintaining a sense of direction and control.

For employers and leaders, the scale and pace of change make psychological safety an increasingly important part of organisational strategy. How you manage change, communicate uncertainty and respond to pressure will shape people's wellbeing and their ability to adapt. Robust policies, clear accountability and meaningful staff consultation need to embed psychological safety into everyday practice, including how workloads are managed and how the wellbeing impacts of change are identified and addressed. These considerations need to be built into how organisations operate, rather than left to individual managers to interpret.

Businesses also have a stake in the wider conditions shaping community confidence. Housing affordability, financial pressure, access to services and the strength of local relationships all influence the environments in which employees and customers live.

The findings offer a reason to take future readiness seriously at both an individual and organisational level. People need the capacity to respond to change, alongside the confidence and support to make meaningful decisions about their lives.

Building a future you can influence starts with understanding the changes around you and making deliberate choices about how you respond.

Source: The Australian Unity Wellbeing Index: Download here